Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.2  30.3  34.8  31.6  41.8  41.7  44.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  40.0  23.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  69.0  59.0  50.0  18.0   1.0  12.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0   6.0  14.0  29.0  13.0  18.0  10.0   7.0 VU  N  U VU  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        7.9%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       22.6%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       13.4%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       13.4%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.7%       13.4%       12.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       10.3%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        2.8%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        4.2%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%