Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  36.0  38.7  31.5  42.8  39.9  47.6  48.7  N  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  49.0  47.0  45.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  67.0  46.0  12.0  22.0  -5.0  11.0  17.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  12.0  24.0  20.0  14.0   9.0   5.0   1.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        5.7%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       19.0%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%        9.7%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%        9.7%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%        9.5%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%        6.4%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        1.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%