Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  32.5  34.7  37.3  37.8  46.7  42.9  39.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  59.0  41.0  36.0  27.0   8.0   8.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  17.0   8.0  25.0  31.0  29.0  30.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  11.0  10.0  10.0   7.0  10.0   2.0   2.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        0.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        3.7%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%