Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142020 200824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  32.1  38.8  42.3  44.2  48.0  41.6  41.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  43.0  37.0  46.0  36.0  33.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  12.0  34.0   8.0  45.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  55.0  56.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0   8.0  15.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%