Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  27.3  35.9  39.5  47.4  50.8  61.1  58.1  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  74.0  73.0  39.0  62.0  41.0  25.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 135.0 122.9 122.9 120.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  11.0 -26.0 -28.0 -34.0  28.0  -3.0  25.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  13.0   8.0  29.0  17.0  34.0  34.0  16.0 VU  U  U VU  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%