Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  31.6  34.1  41.2  48.4  54.5  57.8  51.5  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  59.0  32.0  26.0  44.0  29.0  17.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -5.0  27.0 -23.0 -30.0  14.0   8.0  -6.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   5.0  15.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  10.0   1.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.9%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%