Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     75.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  37.8  43.9  48.3  54.0  58.4  57.0  48.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  32.0  30.0  48.0  41.0  54.0  19.0  18.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 127.3 116.5 122.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  16.0 -22.0 -35.0  -3.0   1.0   9.0 -10.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  18.0  20.0  13.0  25.0  22.0  25.0  11.0  N VU VU  U VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%