Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     73.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.8  44.7  47.8  51.4  56.4  59.4  61.1  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  32.0  52.0  40.0  35.0  18.0  23.0  19.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5 122.9 125.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -21.0 -21.0 -31.0  27.0  -1.0 -22.0 -26.0  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  22.0  16.0  16.0   7.0  13.0  15.0  10.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%