Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.2  51.4  55.2  55.7  51.5  40.9  27.7  26.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  41.0  33.0  44.0  16.0  19.0  24.0  17.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 120.1 122.3 120.1 113.6 122.3 122.3 113.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   0.0  20.0   9.0  48.0 -24.0   4.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  29.0  11.0  20.0  14.0   7.0  11.0   8.0 VU VU  U VU  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%