Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.4  51.5  54.1  50.7  44.2  35.6  27.4  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  28.0  14.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 124.6 120.1 115.7 120.1 120.1 117.9 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  17.0   7.0   4.0  -1.0  -1.0  14.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0   8.0  18.0  14.0  10.0  10.0   2.0   6.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%