Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  53.6  50.4  50.2  46.0  37.0  35.0  27.6 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  17.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 125.1 122.9 125.1 125.1 120.7 116.5 114.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -2.0   9.0  24.0 -21.0  15.0  -3.0  28.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  15.0  15.0  11.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%