Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     64.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.0  51.5  48.0  49.0  42.9  37.7  37.7  37.7 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  12.0  10.0  12.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 122.9 125.1 125.1 122.9 120.7 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  19.0   6.0  14.0 -42.0  40.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  19.0  15.0   9.0  10.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%