Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.0  46.6  43.0  39.2  37.4  34.7  34.7  34.7 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0  10.0  13.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 125.1 122.9 120.7 116.5 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  11.0   0.0 -42.0  -5.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  10.0   7.0  11.0  -1.0   5.0   5.0   5.0 VU  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%