Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.30     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  33.9  35.9  33.1  19.8  14.6  14.6  14.6  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  15.0  10.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 127.9 127.9 125.7 101.0 101.0 101.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -7.0  -6.0  48.0  13.0  19.0  19.0  19.0 VU  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.5%        1.4%