Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152020 200905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  32.6  24.3  18.2  18.2  18.2  18.2  18.2  U  U  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  25.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 122.9 120.7 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  17.0  49.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        3.0%        3.7%