Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  24.9  22.5  24.5  20.2  24.9  15.9  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0  65.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  74.0   6.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  76.0  58.0  16.0  48.0  18.0  19.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        4.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.9%       30.0%       22.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%       12.5%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       12.5%        8.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       10.8%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       35.4%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%       15.1%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%       19.7%       19.7%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%       13.0%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h       24.6%       26.0%       25.3%