Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  18.4  25.3  24.6  22.4  16.2  15.1  20.3  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  73.0  67.0  68.0  57.0  69.0   9.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  30.0  21.0  31.0  33.0  20.0  48.0  39.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   6.0  11.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       10.3%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       27.1%       41.7%       34.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.8%       24.3%       21.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       24.3%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       24.1%       17.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       41.2%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h       12.9%       21.3%       17.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.9%       26.7%       24.8%
 70kt / 48h       16.5%       16.3%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       22.7%       26.2%       24.4%