Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  27.8  29.3  23.8  22.9  15.3  19.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  71.0  73.0  59.0  67.0  14.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  30.0  50.0  48.0  16.0  22.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  52.0  59.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        9.8%       11.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       36.2%       30.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       21.7%       19.6%
 35kt / 24h       11.9%       21.7%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h       11.9%       21.7%       16.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.6%       30.5%       24.6%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       13.7%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%       19.8%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%        9.9%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h       13.7%       17.3%       15.5%