Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     81.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  28.0  23.6  23.4  16.3  15.0  19.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  66.0  57.0  62.0  44.0  12.0  19.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  44.0  51.0  40.0  31.0  50.0  27.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        5.1%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       26.9%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       13.6%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       13.6%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       13.6%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%       23.4%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%        8.8%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       17.5%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        7.3%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%       13.1%       11.7%