Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  21.6  22.4  19.7  16.5  17.4  17.9  17.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  58.0  63.0  72.0  10.0  21.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  41.0  51.0  35.0  57.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        5.6%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       34.6%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       22.1%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       22.1%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       18.1%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       28.9%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       12.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%       24.6%       19.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        9.7%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%       17.4%       14.4%