Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  21.2  19.7  18.3  19.4  22.7  22.7  22.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  73.0  34.0  10.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  23.0  32.0  65.0  50.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  77.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        8.2%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       18.6%       33.4%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       21.9%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%       21.9%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       21.9%       17.3%
 45kt / 36h       17.1%       24.7%       20.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%        9.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%       16.2%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        5.5%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        8.3%        5.9%