Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  19.4  16.3  16.1  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  19.0  12.0  22.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   5.0  53.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.9%       23.1%       34.5%
 25kt / 24h       50.6%       55.0%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       50.6%       54.2%       52.4%
 35kt / 24h       50.6%       54.2%       52.4%
 40kt / 24h       50.6%       54.2%       52.4%
 45kt / 36h       32.4%       35.1%       33.7%
 55kt / 36h       18.8%       17.2%       18.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       19.1%       15.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        7.1%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        6.7%        3.8%