Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     90.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.6  20.5  24.1  23.3  23.3  23.3  23.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  22.0  21.0  19.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  65.0  38.0  13.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        1.3%        2.1%