Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162020 200904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  22.0  25.0  24.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  22.0  18.0  21.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  35.0  40.0  79.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        3.4%        3.7%