Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     42.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3   9.6  14.5  20.3  19.4  23.0  24.8  35.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 112.4 112.4 112.4 114.4 114.4 118.6 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  37.0  14.0  29.0  63.0  41.0   3.0  -7.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   6.0   9.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       12.4%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        4.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        3.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        4.4%        3.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons