Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  14.1  18.6  19.8  23.7  26.3  36.5  37.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 116.5 120.7 127.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  33.0  33.0  53.0  50.0  28.0  -3.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.7%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.9%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        2.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        2.7%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons