Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  21.4  21.7  19.6  24.8  32.3  40.5  39.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   8.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 105.5 107.4 107.4 107.4 111.5 120.1 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  31.0  44.0  52.0   8.0  15.0 -13.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  -5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        8.6%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       12.0%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        4.5%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons