Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.5  25.4  26.3  28.8  39.3  42.5  43.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   7.0  10.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 104.4 108.6 115.1 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  51.0  49.0  17.0  -4.0  -9.0  13.0 -25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.5%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.5%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons