Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     43.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.9  27.9  30.2  42.9  42.6  44.3  40.1  N  N  N  N VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  11.0  14.0  22.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         85.5  87.4  87.4  89.4  95.7 102.3 104.6 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  49.0  29.0  30.0   8.0 -33.0 -20.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   8.0   9.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        3.2%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        8.3%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        3.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        3.4%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%        3.2%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        4.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons