Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.2  31.1  38.2  46.3  43.2  43.8  36.2  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   8.0   8.0  14.0  20.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  87.4  89.4  91.5 100.1 104.6 107.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  23.0  36.0  59.0 -32.0  -7.0  12.0  24.0  N  U  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  10.0   8.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        1.6%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons