Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  34.4  39.2  46.0  44.8  47.5  40.6  42.9  N  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0  11.0  15.0  23.0  42.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  94.4  96.5 100.7 107.3 109.6 114.3 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  44.0  58.0  15.0 -28.0 -18.0  39.0  29.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%