Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  39.5  42.1  40.6  38.7  39.2  33.2  35.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0  10.0  13.0  19.0  34.0  42.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  96.5 100.7 105.1 109.6 114.3 114.3 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0 100.0  25.0 -36.0   0.0  -7.0  32.0  -2.0  N  F  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   8.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%