Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     45.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.7  43.2  44.2  44.6  48.4  35.6  40.6  33.3  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0   9.0  13.0  23.0  44.0  41.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5 100.7 105.1 107.3 112.0 112.0 114.3 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  16.0 -42.0 -39.0 -12.0  27.0   7.0  11.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%