Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.0  45.9  45.7  45.8  44.6  38.4  38.0  31.5 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  13.0  18.0  38.0  39.0  39.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7 102.9 105.1 107.3 112.0 114.3 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0 -31.0 -29.0  14.0  -5.0  36.0  -7.0   3.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%