Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  45.2  48.5  48.1  40.4  42.2  33.4  34.2 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  15.0  19.0  28.0  38.0  39.0  32.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9 105.1 107.3 109.6 112.0 114.3 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -27.0  22.0 -11.0   5.0  -7.0   4.0  25.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   8.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%