Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.5  50.1  46.0  45.3  39.4  22.5  18.2  10.4 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  26.0  27.0  29.0  31.0  28.0  35.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 114.6 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -19.0   3.0   1.0   9.0  49.0  16.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   9.0  13.0  10.0   8.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%