Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  47.7  44.8  42.4  30.0  23.3  11.5   7.4 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  25.0  26.0  31.0  28.0  30.0  28.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   5.0  -4.0  19.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  47.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0  11.0  15.0  14.0  14.0   7.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%