Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     51.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.3  43.2  40.7  39.2  23.9  18.7  10.2   9.3 VU VU VU  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  29.0  35.0  25.0  30.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   9.0   1.0 -17.0  33.0   7.0  24.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  44.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  10.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        0.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%