Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  41.6  42.2  30.1  25.4  10.2   8.6  10.7 VU VU VU  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  27.0  35.0  29.0  27.0  27.0  21.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   2.0  -7.0  18.0  15.0   2.0  -9.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  40.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  13.0  12.0  13.0  13.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        1.7%        1.8%