Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  41.1  30.0  24.4  15.7   8.7  10.5   6.4 VU VU  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  23.0  25.0  27.0  21.0  18.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -7.0  27.0  19.0  -9.0 -10.0  27.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  37.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  14.0  11.0  12.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        3.9%        4.6%