Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  21.6  18.3  13.1   8.3  10.1  11.1  25.5  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  28.0  27.0  24.0  24.0  19.0  28.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  11.0  18.0 -19.0  29.0  15.0   4.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  41.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        4.8%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       27.6%       20.8%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       18.9%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       18.9%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       18.3%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       23.4%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%        9.9%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       21.5%       15.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        6.1%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%        9.8%       11.0%