Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  23.7  15.6   7.7   6.8   7.5  18.6  31.7  N  N  F VF VF VF  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  25.0  21.0  19.0  27.0  22.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  95.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  42.0  -7.0 -22.0   3.0  21.0  25.0  53.0  U  N  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  39.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  13.0   9.0   6.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0  -8.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.4%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       10.2%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        6.4%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        6.4%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%        6.4%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%        7.3%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        2.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       10.0%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        1.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%        3.2%        7.3%