Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     59.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6   8.0   7.2   7.6   5.8  20.2  39.1  54.0  F VF VF VF VF  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  25.0  19.0  26.0  22.0  16.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  87.9  92.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  -4.0  39.0  -1.0  25.0  49.0 100.0 102.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  45.0  41.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0 -11.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%       11.3%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       43.3%       33.4%
 30kt / 24h       21.6%       43.3%       32.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.2%       43.3%       31.3%
 40kt / 24h       19.2%       43.3%       31.3%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       30.6%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h       16.7%       15.3%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.3%       26.7%       21.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        7.2%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%        3.2%        6.1%