Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     60.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.6   8.5   7.9   8.4  12.6  27.9  48.0  56.8  F  F VF  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  21.0  18.0  24.0  12.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  92.3  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  25.0  -9.0   8.0  30.0  60.0 129.0 102.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  40.0  43.0  39.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   6.0   3.0  -7.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.6%       21.8%       20.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       61.2%       47.7%
 30kt / 24h       29.8%       61.2%       45.5%
 35kt / 24h       29.6%       61.2%       45.4%
 40kt / 24h       19.0%       61.2%       40.1%
 45kt / 36h       31.5%       41.6%       36.6%
 55kt / 36h       19.2%       25.6%       22.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       28.5%       22.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        8.7%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        2.7%        4.5%