Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8   7.1   7.5   7.8  22.3  39.1  56.4  63.1  F VF VF VF  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  19.0  30.0  21.0  17.0  21.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  82.9  80.7  80.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0 -12.0   2.0  35.0  25.0 127.0 112.0  85.0  U  U  U  N  U  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  37.0  38.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   1.0 -21.0 -37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.0%       24.3%       23.7%
 25kt / 24h       38.3%       66.2%       52.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.5%       66.2%       51.4%
 35kt / 24h       36.5%       66.2%       51.4%
 40kt / 24h       23.3%       66.2%       44.8%
 45kt / 36h       29.6%       30.3%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h       16.9%       16.3%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%       16.0%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        3.9%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        1.2%        2.2%