Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     62.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4   8.7  10.3  14.0  27.7  49.0  53.3  65.3  F  F  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  28.0  28.0  18.0  17.0  32.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  77.9  82.3  71.5   5.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   5.0  23.0  27.0  57.0 130.0  86.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  37.0  40.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  -3.0 -20.0 -39.0 -31.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       50.0%       30.9%       40.4%
 25kt / 24h       50.1%       68.4%       59.3%
 30kt / 24h       50.1%       68.4%       59.3%
 35kt / 24h       50.1%       68.4%       59.3%
 40kt / 24h       41.5%       68.4%       55.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.0%       21.7%       26.4%
 55kt / 36h       17.9%       10.3%       14.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        8.2%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        2.0%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%