Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.8   9.5  13.9  22.1  41.5  58.0  69.6  72.6 VF  F  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  29.0  29.0  21.0  19.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  77.9  75.7  30.4   5.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   7.0  36.0  26.0 130.0 140.0  53.0  44.0  U  U  N  U  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  39.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  35.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   5.0   0.0  -5.0 -30.0 -39.0 -30.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.9%       25.8%       27.8%
 25kt / 24h       32.4%       54.3%       43.4%
 30kt / 24h       32.4%       54.3%       43.4%
 35kt / 24h       31.2%       54.3%       42.8%
 40kt / 24h       24.1%       54.3%       39.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.1%       10.6%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%        3.8%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        3.3%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%