Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80     64.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  14.7  21.9  32.6  51.3  63.4  81.5  66.5  F  F  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  32.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  82.0  75.1  75.1  70.7  -4.6 -10.4  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  47.0  51.0  84.0 150.0  76.0  58.0  55.0  U  N  N  N VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  37.0  42.0  41.0  41.0  36.0  30.0  29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0 -22.0 -32.0 -45.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.0%       22.1%       24.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       31.3%       27.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.7%       30.3%       25.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.6%       30.3%       25.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%       30.3%       21.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%        5.1%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%