Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  23.1  33.0  43.7  61.8  72.5  71.9  40.5  F  N  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  15.0  13.0  21.0  25.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  77.0  67.9  65.7  65.7  -2.6 -12.9 -21.8  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  44.0  80.0 139.0 120.0  43.0  40.0   0.0  N  N  N VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  40.0  40.0  38.0  38.0  32.0  27.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   3.0  -1.0 -18.0 -67.0 -39.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.1%       18.8%       28.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       18.3%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.6%       13.3%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.2%       13.3%       14.2%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       13.3%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%        2.4%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%