Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90     64.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  32.2  43.6  54.9  59.6  76.9  60.7  28.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  13.0  22.0  15.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.6  62.9  65.1  62.9  19.4 -18.6 -29.1 -37.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  76.0 146.0 147.0  44.0  43.0  32.0 -15.0  U  N VF VF  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  34.0  27.0  28.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0  -4.0 -22.0 -41.0 -56.0 -29.0 -10.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.0%        8.2%       13.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%        7.0%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        3.7%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%        3.7%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        0.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%